Quickly, who’s leading all MLB catchers in Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement this year? He was second among catchers in 2010, tied for second in 2009, second in 2008, had a down year in 2007 (his second full season in the big leagues), and was second in 2006 (his first full season).
The only reason he’s ended up second all those years is that he’s simply been unable to keep up with the Joe Mauer juggernaut, and he once tied with Victor Martinez.
Mauer is widely recognized as a superstar when he plays — the degree of which might be slightly underrated because of his injuries — so why is it that so few people realize that the game’s other premier catching talent is Brian McCann?
It’s not that he’s unrecognized. After all, he’s a five-time, soon to be six-time, All Star. But McCann, somehow, still fails to register as an all-time great on the national consciousness. Perhaps it’s because he hasn’t put up a single monster offensive season like Javy Lopez’s 2003 (.328/.378/.687, 43 HR), and he’s never played for a team that sucked up the baseball world’s attention the way Buster Posey and Jorge Posada have. All those players are or were excellent, but McCann could surpass them all by career’s end.
Consider that McCann just has to play two more seasons at his current level to pass Lopez in career fWAR. Consider that Posey’s season-ending leg injury may already have put him on the Craig Biggio path to another position. It’s unlikely McCann will pass Posada, who will likely retire after this season with about 50 career fWAR, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see McCann play at his current level another four years, through his age-31 season, then begin a yearly decline as he plays less often, and less effectively, averaging about 2 fWAR over the next five years, through his age-36 season. In other words, McCann could easily finish this season with about 26 career fWAR, then add another 16 fWAR over the next four years, then another 10 fWAR over the next five years, finishing with 52 fWAR for his career, with another couple seasons of pinch-hitting and first base work to spare.
For what it’s worth, 50 fWAR is right on the edge of Hall of Fame consideration. There are some catchers in the Hall who are below that standard (Roger Bresnahan, Roy Campanella), and a couple left out who are above it (Ted Simmons, Bill Freehan). There are also a few on that list who caught a good number of games, but weren’t exactly full-time catchers (Joe Torre, Brian Downing).
Unfortunately, I think we’re headed for a repeat of the Tim Raines problem, soon to be the Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, and Andruw Jones problem. Raines is exceptionally qualified for Hall inclusion by just about any measure — except that he never got much attention when he played because he was in Montreal and Rickey Henderson was better. Edmonds, Lofton, and Jones all brought about the same amount of value to the table, and all could claim to be the second-best center fielder of their era, behind Ken Griffey, Jr. Unfortunately, even though all three were fantastic defenders who put up monster offensive seasons, appeared in many multiple All Star Games, and both Edmonds and Jones won a World Series*, they all face uphill battles to enter the Hall because Griffey overshadowed them all (did Bernie Williams and the Yankees overshadow them, too?), just as Mauer overshadows McCann.
The lesson, folks, is to appreciate that a catcher who puts up .290/.360/.490 year in and year out is a rare gem, and we ought to give him his due before it’s too late, and a history of not getting his due is held against him.
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*Dammit, he wasn’t on the Braves in 1995. Stupid not checking the record.
3:46 pm - 25 Jun 2011 - 1 note
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Filed under: #baseball #Brian McCann #Atlanta Braves #Joe Mauer #Jorge Posada #Jim Edmonds #Kenny Lofton #Ken Griffey Jr #Andruw Jones #Buster Posey #Tim Raines #Rickey Henderson
